Todd Zola, FantasyJun 22, 2024, 12:47 PM
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- Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
- Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Road warriors
Pop quiz: What team totes the most potent offense away from home? Believe it or not, it's the New York Mets. Through Friday, the Mets are averaging 5.88 runs in road game. Their .342 wOBA in away games leads the league. It makes sense for the Mets to be better on the road than at Citi Field since their home venue suppresses offense more than anywhere else in the game. Even so, their road prowess has been eye-opening.
Home-field advantage exists in baseball, although the effect is dwindling, likely due to increased umpire scrutiny. For many years, pitchers' strikeout and walk rates were 5% better at home. Over the past two seasons, though, it has dropped to 2.6%. To put this in perspective, the home ERA for the entire league used to be around 0.33 runs lower at home, now it's 0.22 runs.
While the overall benefit might be lessening, it's still better to populate your fantasy lineup with pitchers working at home... well, unless they're facing the Mets. At least that what the current numbers are telling us.
Any time a player (or club) is leading the league in a category, there is usually a combination of skill and luck involved. The Mets have the third-highest wOBA and third-best batting average with runners in scoring position on the road. There is an element of luck involved with both of those stats. However, they Mets are fanning at only a 19.4% clip away from Citi Field, the fifth-lowest level in the league. By putting the ball in play more, the Mets have taken better advantage of their good fortune.
Regression to the mean in both BABIP and batting average with runners in scoring position should make using a home pitcher facing the Mets less risky going forward. However, strikeouts are integral to fantasy scoring, regardless of the format -- and a pitcher's projected strikeouts when facing the Mets should be adjusted down, rendering the choice to stream them less palatable.
On Sunday, Chicago Cubs SP Javier Assad (44.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) will face the Mets in the final game of a three-game weekend series. Often, Sunday roster moves are driven by needs in head-to-head leagues. If the decision is solely based on whether Assad will post solid numbers, it gets tricky.
Strikeouts are the key. For the season, Assad has 79 punchouts in his 78⅔ innings. However, spanning his past five starts, Assad has rung up 33 batters over 25⅔ innings. It's an aggressive call, but in season-long formats, I'm starting Assad.
Everything else you need to know for Sunday
Beware, Sunday's action begins 11:35 a.m. ET with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks. Keep in mind that for standard ESPN leagues you'll be able to make roster moves until the start of each player's game, but waivers and free agent pickups lock before the first game of the slate.
The Phillies will send SP Cristopher Sanchez (21.4% rostered) to the hill. On Saturday, Sanchez agreed to a four-year contract extension, buying out his arbitration years along with adding options through 2030. Sanchez sports a 2.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP this season. The associated 3.48 SIERA and 3.13 xFIP indicate that Sanchez has been a bit fortunate, mostly with a low 2.4% HR/FB rate. That said, a 59.4% GB rate has also helped him yield only one homer in 77⅓ innings. On the other hand, his .342 BABIP is high, even for an extreme ground-ball pitcher. On Sunday, Sanchez is in play as a streamer, facing a league-average lineup with a league-average strikeout rate.
Detroit Tigers SP Reese Olson (12.2% rostered) is coming off one of his best efforts of the season. Earlier in the week, Olson hurled six scoreless innings on the road against the Atlanta Braves, fanning eight while issuing no free passes. On Sunday, Olson draws a sputtering Chicago White Sox lineup in Comerica Park. The visitors are averaging the second-fewest runs on the road, fueled by the seventh-highest strikeout rate away from home.
Opposing Olson will be White Sox SP Jonathan Cannon (5.4% rostered). Olson is the preferred choice, but Cannon is an option in deeper formats. Since moving to the rotation, Cannon has started twice, recording seven strikeouts in seven frames against the Seattle Mariners, then falling one out shy of a complete-game shutout in his last time out, against the Houston Astros. The Tigers are also one of the lowest-scoring teams in MLB, buoyed by an above-average strikeout rate.
If you need to make up ground in strikeouts, consider Tampa Bay Rays SP Aaron Civale (13.6% rostered) for his road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Civale has maintained the strikeout prowess he displayed after the Rays acquired him at last season's trade deadline. He should pad his total, facing the offense with the fourth-highest strikeout rate.
It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Joey Meneses (WSH, DH -- 4%) at Kyle Freeland
Nick Senzel (WSH, 3B -- 1%) at Freeland
Jesse Winker (WSH, DH -- 14%) at Freeland
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 44%) at Freeland
Elehuris Montero (COL, 1B -- 0%) vs. Jake Irvin
Sean Bouchard (COL, RF -- 0%) vs. Irvin
Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 20%) vs. Irvin
Ildemaro Vargas (WSH, 3B -- 0%) at Freeland
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Paul Goldschmidt (STL, 1B -- 78%) vs. Logan Webb
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 87%) vs. Max Fried
Maikel Garcia (KC, 3B -- 72%) at Dane Dunning
Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C -- 58%) at Hogan Harris
Randy Arozarena (TB, LF -- 72%) at Paul Skenes
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 55%) at Cristopher Sanchez
Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 75%) at Michael King
Nolan Arenado (STL, 3B -- 85%) vs. Webb
Salvador Perez (KC, C -- 96%) at Dunning
Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B -- 88%) at Skenes
